A US and Israeli air campaign against Iran began on 28 February 2026; its first strikes killed the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Ceasefires in April and June both broke down. Since July the US and Iran have exchanged fire directly, and a US blockade of Iranian ports has been in force since 14 July. Indirect talks through Qatar continue but have made little progress since late September.
Forecasts
Our chance that each happens in the next 90 days after the forecast was made. The bar shows our estimate and its range; a teal tick marks the betting market where it asks the same question.
What the US and Israel might do
US strikes on Iranian soil
60%
Up 5 points from 55% on 9 Oct
Range 46–73%, made 2026-10-11 Polymarket 65.5%
Will the US strike Iran's land territory in the next 90 days?
Mr Trump has promised in public that the US will not attack Iran before the midterms on 3 November, and calls talks productive. But Israeli media report that Israel's army chief was briefed this week on US preparations for an operation within three weeks, the Pentagon has been asked for strike options, and larger forces arrive in November. The betting market, read across all its contracts, gives about one in three within 30 days and about 68% within 90. Our model gives about one in eight over 30 days. In our replay of 2024 to 2026 the market beat the model clearly on US strikes, so we now weight it more and have moved up from 55%.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, a confirmed US air, missile or drone strike hits a target on Iran's land territory, including its islands, or in its internal waters.
Not counted: Strikes on ships or boats in Iran's territorial sea or beyond; missiles or drones shot down in flight; cyber attacks; strikes by Israel.
Will Israel and Iran exchange direct strikes in the next 90 days?
Israeli media report that the IDF would take part directly in any renewed US operation and expects Iran to answer with missiles on Israel, which ties this question closely to the US one. On 14 October Mr Netanyahu said a strike before Israel's election on 27 October was 'not convenient for us', and Mr Trump has ruled out an attack before 3 November; but the window runs to January, our model has risen to almost one in four for an Israeli strike within 30 days, and the betting market reads it the same way. Israel has stayed out of the fighting since June.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, both of the following happen within any 14-day period: (1) Israel carries out at least one confirmed strike on a target inside Iran; and (2) Iranian state forces carry out at least one confirmed attack, launched from Iranian territory, on Israeli territory.
Not counted: Covert killings or sabotage inside Iran that Israel does not acknowledge and no two listed outlets attribute to Israel; attacks by Hezbollah, the Houthis or other groups.
Decapitation strike
12%
Unchanged since 4 Oct
Range 6–20%, made 2026-10-04
Will the US or Israel carry out a decapitation strike in the next 90 days?
No listed leader has been killed since 17 March, despite months of US strikes. The chance rises sharply if a full air campaign resumes.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, the US or Israel carries out a confirmed kinetic strike, anywhere in the world, that kills a holder of one of the listed leadership positions, or that the acting government or the Iranian government confirms was aimed at one.
Not counted: Killings of scientists, mid-ranking commanders or officials not on the list; strikes on leaders of Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah.
A ceasefire that holds
20%
Down 3 points from 23% on 10 Oct
Range 11–30%, made 2026-10-12
Will the US and Iran agree a ceasefire in the next 90 days that then holds for 30 days?
Messages still pass through Qatar, Pakistan and Russia, and Mr Trump has ruled out an attack before 3 November. But Iran's security council called the US reply 'insufficient' on 11 October and Tehran has still not answered it; Iran wants the June memorandum back while the US insists on enrichment; no breakthrough is expected before Israel's election on 27 October or the US midterms; and attacks on tankers are rising. Neither ceasefire this year lasted 30 days.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, both governments announce or confirm a ceasefire or an end to hostilities (directly or through a mediator), and in the 30 days after it starts neither carries out a confirmed kinetic attack on the other's territory, forces or vessels. The 30 days may run past the 90-day window.
Not counted: Pauses announced by only one side; a ceasefire that breaks down within 30 days. Enforcement of the blockade without weapons fire does not break a ceasefire.
Ground forces in Iran
20%
Unchanged since 4 Oct
Range 10–30%, made 2026-10-04
Will US or Israeli ground forces operate inside Iran in the next 90 days?
Marines are heading to the region and US officials are reported to be considering ground troops after the midterms. Raids and landings on Iran's islands would count, which makes this broader than an invasion.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, the US or Israeli government acknowledges, or two listed outlets confirm, that its ground forces (including special forces and marines) have operated on Iran's land territory, including its islands.
Not counted: The rescue of downed aircrew; intelligence officers working covertly; forces on ships in Iranian waters.
What Iran might do
Iran attacks US forces
68%
Up 3 points from 65% on 7 Oct
Range 54–80%, made 2026-10-14
Will Iran attack US forces from its own territory in the next 90 days?
Iran attacked US forces in every month from April to September and has answered every round of US strikes. It is now more than a month since the last confirmed attack, on 9 September, but the friction is rising: on 13 October the IRGC navy commander said Iran was waiting for US warships to approach Hormuz 'so that we can sink them', Iran has sent new naval units east of the strait, and a US official says US forces destroyed an IRGC spotter boat (not confirmed). Our US-strike forecast is 60%.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, Iranian state forces (the Artesh or the IRGC) carry out a confirmed attack, launched from Iranian territory or waters, on US forces, bases or vessels, or on US territory.
Not counted: Attacks by Iran-aligned groups; harassment without weapons fire; attacks no government or two listed outlets attribute to Iran.
Iran strikes a Gulf state
45%
Down 5 points from 50% on 4 Oct
Range 30–60%, made 2026-10-07
Will Iran strike the territory of a Gulf Arab state in the next 90 days?
This year Iran has hit Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, often through the US bases they host; the UAE reported Iranian missiles as recently as 18 August. Since then Iran has aimed at Jordan and at ships, and has not attacked US forces for more than a month.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, a confirmed attack launched from Iran hits the land territory of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain or Oman, including US bases there, as confirmed by that state's government or two listed outlets.
Not counted: Attacks on ships at sea; missiles or drones shot down over the sea; attacks launched from Iraq or Yemen.
Iran leaves the NPT
8%
Unchanged since 4 Oct
Range 4–15%, made 2026-10-04
Will Iran give formal notice that it is leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty in the next 90 days?
A fast-track withdrawal bill is before Iran's parliament and the IAEA's board referred Iran to the Security Council on 9 September. But Iran has threatened withdrawal for years without giving notice; the betting market puts it at about 12% before 2027.
Exactly what counts
Yes if, within 90 days of the assessment date, Iran gives notice of withdrawal under Article X of the treaty, as confirmed by Iran's government or the United Nations.
Not counted: Bills, votes or threats in Iran's parliament without formal notice; reduced cooperation with the IAEA.
Each probability is Signum Average's own forecast for the question as defined, with a range showing our uncertainty. It is informed by the ladder levels, the gauges, our model of US and Israeli strikes and, where a prediction market asks a question that resolves on comparable terms, by its prices, which have the better record so far and are shown alongside ours. It is a judgement, not a model output, and we say so. When a question resolves we publish our Brier score, so readers can see how well calibrated we have been. The Iran forecasts rest mainly on the record of Iran's attacks this year. Every forecast is logged with its date and will be scored when its question resolves.
The escalation ladders
Each ladder climbs from routine pressure to all-out war. The level is the highest rung with a confirmed event in the 30 days before the assessment, so it shows how intense things are now and falls again when they calm down.
United States
Level 4
The US government and armed forces only. Israel has its own ladder.
6Regime-level attack
A US decapitation strike; or US strikes on Iran's national civilian infrastructure (power grid, refineries, oil-export terminals); or acknowledged US ground forces operating inside Iran.
5Strikes on Iran
A confirmed US strike on any target inside Iran's territory, territorial waters or airspace.
4Direct confrontation
US forces fire on Iranian military units or vessels outside Iranian territory; or seize an Iranian-flagged vessel; or declare a blockade or interdiction of Iranian ports.
3Strikes on Iran's allies
A US strike on one of the listed Iran-aligned groups, outside Iran, acknowledged by the Defense Department.
2Military signalling
Two or more US carrier strike groups inside Central Command's area at the same time; or an announced deployment of B-1, B-2 or B-52 bombers to that area or to Diego Garcia; or a presidential statement that sets Iran a deadline backed by a threat of force.
1Major economic pressure
A new executive order or presidential memorandum on Iran; or a new Iran sanctions programme; or a round of designations, announced by the Treasury or the State Department, aimed at Iran's oil exports (its tankers, terminals or the refiners and traders that buy its oil) or at its central bank. Routine designations of individuals and companies are logged but do not set the level.
0No new pressure
None of the rungs below has a confirmed event in the window.
Israel
Level 0
The Israeli government, the Israel Defense Forces and the intelligence services. Attacks on Israel by Iran-aligned groups are not on this ladder.
6Regime-level attack
An Israeli decapitation strike; or Israeli strikes on Iran's national civilian infrastructure (power grid, refineries, oil-export terminals); or acknowledged Israeli ground forces operating inside Iran.
5Strikes on Iran
A confirmed Israeli air, missile or drone strike on any target inside Iran's territory, territorial waters or airspace.
4Covert attack inside Iran
A killing, act of sabotage or cyber attack inside Iran that Israel acknowledges, or that two listed outlets attribute to Israel.
3Strikes on Iranian forces abroad
A confirmed Israeli strike outside Iran that kills IRGC or Artesh personnel, or hits an Iranian weapons shipment or Iranian military site. Strikes on Iran-aligned groups alone do not count.
2War footing
The IDF Home Front Command restricts gatherings or closes schools nationwide, or Israel closes its airspace, citing a threat from Iran; or a reserve call-up that the government says is directed at Iran.
1Explicit threat
The prime minister, the defence minister or the IDF chief of staff says publicly that Israel will take military action against Iran if a named condition is not met or by a named date. General warnings do not count.
0No new pressure
None of the rungs below has a confirmed event in the window.
Iran
Level 5
The Iranian state: the government, the Artesh and the IRGC. Rung 3 covers the listed Iran-aligned groups.
6Nuclear breakout
Iran gives notice of withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty under its Article X; or the IAEA reports uranium enriched to 90% or more; or the Iranian government announces it will build a nuclear weapon.
5Regional widening
An Iranian attack on a Gulf state's energy infrastructure, attributed to Iran by that state; or an official announcement closing the Strait of Hormuz; or weekly ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz below half the pre-war level, on a count that includes ships sailing with their transponders off.
4Direct strike from Iran
A confirmed attack launched from Iranian territory on Israel, on US forces, or on another state.
3Proxy attacks on Americans
An attack by a listed Iran-aligned group kills or injures US service members, or hits a US Navy vessel, as confirmed by the Defense Department.
2Maritime harassment
Iranian forces seize, board or fire on a commercial vessel; or an unsafe interaction with a US Navy ship is reported by the US Navy or Central Command.
1Nuclear defiance
Iran formally reduces cooperation with the IAEA or expels inspectors; or the IAEA reports new enrichment capacity, a new enrichment site, or a rise in the level of enrichment.
0No new escalation
None of the rungs below has a confirmed event in the window.
Open a rung to read its exact definition.
Gauges
US carrier strike groups in Central Command's area1
George Washington, in the Arabian Sea. George H.W. Bush left for a port visit in Thailand on 4 October; Theodore Roosevelt is crossing the Pacific on its way to the region.
USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker, 2026-10-05
Iran's stock of 60%-enriched uranium440.9 kg
The IAEA's last figure, from before the June 2025 strikes. It has not been able to verify the stock since.
Latest IAEA quarterly report, 2025-06-13
IAEA access to Iran's declared sitesNone
The IAEA says it has had no access to any of Iran's declared nuclear facilities and no information from Iran on their status.
IAEA Director General's statement to the Board of Governors, 2026-09-07
Strait of Hormuz traffic, against the pre-war levelAbout 13%
By ship count; by oil volume, roughly a third to a half. Windward, which also counts ships sailing with their transponders off, logged 119 transits in the week to 30 September, 17 a day against about 130 before the war; 37% were dark. The ships that do cross are mostly the largest tankers, running at night under US escort: Kpler put crude flows through the strait at 7.4m barrels a day in September, roughly a third to a half of the pre-war level. US officials say 13m barrels a day or more. Since then traffic has thinned again: 18 crossings on 7 October and 8 on the 8th, with crude passing the strait down 27% on the week before. Kpler put crude flows at 8.5m barrels a day in the week to 7 October, about 40% below normal, and daily volumes swing widely: 20.8m barrels on 8 October, 2.9m on the 11th, against 17.1m a day before the war. Attacks on ships are rising: the UK maritime agency counted 15 between 6 and 14 October, and Iran's navy has deployed new units east of the strait.
Ships broadcasting their position only (IMF PortWatch, 2026-10-11): 6.1% of pre-war. 4.1 transits a day, against 68.1 a day in January and February 2026.
Most recent round of US–Iran talks, direct or indirectIndirect, through Qatar, Pakistan and Russia
On 13 October Iran's deputy foreign minister said Tehran was finalising its response to the US reply on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which its security council had called 'insufficient'; Pakistan and Qatar are still carrying messages. Iran wants the June memorandum back; the US insists on enrichment. Mr Trump says a decision on Iran will come 'very soon', while the White House repeats that there will be no attack before 3 November. No meeting is scheduled.
A US fighter jet hit the stern of the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman and disabled it after it left an Iranian port, Central Command said; no one was hurt. Logged; enforcing the blockade against a third country's ship does not set the level.
The Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels of Iran's shadow fleet, saying this neutralised most of what remained of the network that carries its oil. Aimed at oil exports, so it counts as major economic pressure.
The Treasury sanctioned 30 Iranian people and companies, including the carmakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA and the state railway. Logged; does not set the level.
Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz ran at 17 a day in the week to 30 September, about 13% of the pre-war level, on a count that includes ships with their transponders off. Oil flows have recovered further, to roughly a third to a half.
Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at Jordan; 18 were intercepted. At Muwaffaq Salti air base one US A-10 lost a wing and eight F-15s were lightly damaged.
In response, US forces disabled the IRGC oil tankers Downy (off Kharg Island) and Stark 1 (near Jask) and destroyed the Kylo in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM did not say whether the first two were inside Iranian waters, so this is not counted as a strike on Iran.
These reports do not yet meet the evidence rule, so they move nothing. Each will be counted if it is confirmed.
A container ship and a tanker were hit by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October; the UK maritime agency counted 15 attacks on ships between 6 and 14 October.
Why it does not count yet: No one has claimed them; two Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran had changed the type and pace of its attacks.
A US military official told Reuters that the IRGC was using unarmed spotters in small boats to find targets, including US warships, and that US forces had ordered the crew off one such boat and destroyed it.
Why it does not count yet: A single anonymous source, with no date or place; Central Command has not announced it. If confirmed it would be a direct clash (US rung 4).
Two more tankers were hit in and near the Strait of Hormuz on 10 and 11 October. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said a supertanker on an 'unauthorised route' had struck a mine and caught fire; the UK maritime agency reported a projectile hitting an outbound tanker, and the UAE coastguard rescued 22 crew from a burning ship. Iran's army chief said: 'We have struck blows against enemy vessels.'
Why it does not count yet: No ship is named and no one has claimed either attack; the army chief's remark gives no ship, date or place.
Israel's army chief, Eyal Zamir, was briefed by senior US officers on 6 October on preparations for a possible renewed operation against Iran within three weeks, in which the IDF would take part, according to Israeli media.
Why it does not count yet: Unnamed sources; neither government has confirmed it, and Mr Trump said on 8 October that there would be no attack before 3 November.
The UK maritime agency logged nine attacks on ships in and near the Strait of Hormuz in the first week of October, among them Kuwait's Kazimah III (1 October), the Lipsi (4 October) and a tanker off Qatar hit with casualties (7 October); another vessel was hit off the UAE on 8 October.
Why it does not count yet: The agency describes the projectiles as unidentified and no government has attributed the attacks. Fars, a news agency close to the Revolutionary Guards, says Iran targeted 13 'violating' tankers in a week, but that is state media, not an official statement.
The White House has asked the Pentagon for options to strike Iran before the US midterm elections on 3 November, according to The Atlantic; no decision has been made.
Why it does not count yet: One report citing two unnamed officials. A White House official said only that the president 'has all options available at any time'. On 8 October Mr Trump said there would be no attack before the midterms.
The US moved its bombers out of RAF Fairford in Britain; US and British officials said this followed information about a drone attack on the base ordered by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Why it does not count yet: The plot rests on officials' statements; no charge, evidence or independent confirmation has been published, and Iran denies it.
We replayed 2024 to 2026 one day at a time, letting our model see only what was public on each day (more than 500 sourced events), and compared its chance of a strike within 30 days with what happened and with the betting market. The market's chance is read from all its open contracts together, so it covers the same 30 days.
Attack
Our model, a week before
Our model, the day before
Market, the day before
Israel, 19 April 2024
18%
45%
90%
Israel, 26 October 2024
24%
13%
59%
Israel, 13 June 2025
4%
11%
31%
US, 22 June 2025
97%
98%
53%
US and Israel, 28 February 2026
8–15%
81–83%
50–53%
US restart, 7 May 2026
16%
14%
No market
US restart, 26 June 2026
39%
39%
No market
US restart, 29 July 2026
84%
47%
No market
US, 30 August 2026 (Iran's south)
54%
27%
21%
Chance of a strike on Iran within 30 days, as each saw it beforehand.
Where it worked: it gave 97% a week before the US joined Israel's war in June 2025, saw the attack of 28 February 2026 the day before (over 80%), and flagged the US strikes of late July and late August 2026 a week ahead. Over the whole period it beat a naive guess for both US and Israeli strikes.
Where it failed: it did not see 13 June 2025 coming (11% the day before), was slow on the US restart of 7 May 2026, and often gave little more than a day's warning. On the days a betting market traded, the market did clearly better than our model for both attackers.
What we tried in October 2026: a second, independent coding of every event (the two codings agree well), reported planning windows, public pledges of restraint, and a smoother measure of how recent the last strike was. Together they helped a little on Israeli strikes and hurt on US strikes, so by the rule we set beforehand they were not adopted. Reading the market properly helped more than any change to the model.
So our forecasts lean on the market where one trades, use the model where none does, and add our own judgement, and say which. With about four independent onsets, nothing here proves accuracy, and we do not claim it. From 6 October 2026 every reading is logged, so the record that counts is the one still to come.
Definitions and rules
What counts as confirmed
An event counts only when it is confirmed. Confirmed means either (a) an official statement by the government that acted, or by the defence or foreign ministry of the government that was targeted; or (b) independent reporting by at least two of the outlets below, not citing each other.
Listed outlets: Reuters, Associated Press, AFP, BBC, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Financial Times, Bloomberg.
Nuclear programme: IAEA reports to the Board of Governors, and IAEA statements.
US naval deployments: USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker (weekly).
Strait of Hormuz traffic: Counts that include ships sailing with their transponders off (Windward, Kpler); IMF PortWatch daily counts as a floor.
US sanctions: US Treasury (OFAC) and State Department press releases.
Claims made only by one side's state media, anonymous single-source reports, and social-media footage that no listed outlet has verified do not count. Attributions in dispute are logged but do not move the ladder until confirmed.
Leadership positions for a decapitation strike
A decapitation strike targets the people who command Iran's state and armed forces. The list is of positions, not names, so it stays valid when office-holders change.
Supreme Leader
President
Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces
Commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters
Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Commander of the IRGC Quds Force
Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force
Commander-in-Chief of the Army (Artesh)
Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council
Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran
Most recent decapitation strike: 2026-03-17. Ali Larijani was killed by an Israeli strike in Tehran; Israel claimed it and the Supreme National Security Council confirmed his death. (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera)
Iran-aligned groups
Iran-aligned groups, for the ladders below. A group is added only when at least two listed outlets describe it as receiving Iranian arms or funding. Hezbollah, Ansar Allah (the Houthis), Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat al-Nujaba, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Updates and corrections
Checked every day. The Hormuz and market figures refresh automatically each morning; new events and ladder levels are published once an editor has checked every source. Every change of level, every forecast and every correction is logged with its date. Past forecasts are never edited.
Corrections
2026-10-06. The Strait of Hormuz gauge previously showed 4% of pre-war traffic, from IMF PortWatch, which counts only ships broadcasting their position. Counts that include ships sailing with transponders off are about three times higher, and oil flows have recovered to roughly a third to a half of the pre-war level. The gauge now shows all three readings, the event log has been reworded, and the definition of Iran's rung 5 now requires a count that includes dark ships. Iran's level is unchanged at 5. The talks gauge now reflects Qatar's statement of 6 October that messages are still being exchanged.